COST

COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP /NEW ↗ website

CIK: 0000909832 · Consumer Defensive / Discount Stores · 32d ago

$902.60 -7.58 (-0.83%)

Market Cap $400B P/E 45.5 EV/EBITDA 31.7x P/B 24.2 Div Yield 0.65% 52W $844 – $1096

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Deep Dive Is Costco's compounding still the engine, or is the entry multiple now the whole story? bull +97% · base +50% · bear +6%

Authored 5-yr outcomes from the note's lens — a thesis, not the trailing-10-K numbers below. read the note · open the Compounder Lens

Growth

Compounded Sales Growth

10 Years	9%
5 Years	11%
3 Years	7%
TTM	9%

Compounded Profit Growth

10 Years	13%
5 Years	15%
3 Years	11%
TTM	13%

Fundamental Growth Decomposition ⓘ

Window:

Returns / Quality

Avg ROIC (All-Capital)

10 Years	32%
5 Years	39%
3 Years	39%
Last Year	41%

Return on Equity

10 Years	26%
5 Years	28%
3 Years	28%
Last Year	28%

Capital Allocation

Capital Return Ratio (vs OE)

10 Years	109%
5 Years	120%
3 Years	100%
Last Year	57%

Dividend Growth (DPS)

10 Years	-3%
5 Years	8%
3 Years	13%

Performance

Stock Price CAGR

10 Years	21%
5 Years	16%
3 Years	18%
1 Year	-2%

Metric	FY15	FY16	FY17	FY18	FY19	FY20	FY21	FY22	FY23	FY24	FY25
Capital Allocation (USD millions / %)
Operating cash flow	4,285	3,292	6,726	5,774	6,356	8,861	8,958	7,392	11,068	11,339	13,335
Reinvested in the business	2,39355.8%	2,64980.5%	2,50237.2%	2,96951.4%	3,99762.9%	2,81031.7%	3,58840.1%	3,89152.6%	4,32339.1%	4,71041.5%	5,49841.2%
−Capex	2,39355.8%	2,64980.5%	2,50237.2%	2,96951.4%	2,99847.2%	2,81031.7%	3,58840.1%	3,89152.6%	4,32339.1%	4,71041.5%	5,49841.2%
−Acquisitions	—	—	—	—	99915.7%	—	—	—	—	—	—
R&D expense (memo, in opex)	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Free cash flow	1,892	643	4,224	2,805	3,358	6,051	5,370	3,501	6,745	6,629	7,837
Returned to shareholders	3,346176.8%	1,232191.6%	4,373103.5%	1,01736.3%	1,28538.3%	1,67527.7%	6,244116.3%	1,93755.3%	1,92728.6%	9,741146.9%	3,08639.4%
−Dividends	2,865151.4%	746116.0%	3,90492.4%	68924.6%	1,03830.9%	1,47924.4%	5,748107.0%	1,49842.8%	1,25118.5%	9,041136.4%	2,18327.9%
−Buybacks	48125.4%	48675.6%	46911.1%	32811.7%	2477.4%	1963.2%	4969.2%	43912.5%	67610.0%	70010.6%	90311.5%
Change in total debt	N/A	-1,157	484	-78	1,884	-799	578	-1,773	-99	-561	-109
Cash left over	N/A	-1,746	335	1,710	2,958	3,577	-296	-209	4,719	-3,673	4,642
NOPAT	2,422	2,411	2,762	3,206	3,682	4,110	5,100	5,880	6,015	7,023	7,773
Invested capital (ops)	16,522	19,652	19,819	21,153	22,141	21,427	23,232	26,946	28,137	30,979	33,445
Reinvestment rate %	N/A	129.8%	6.0%	41.6%	26.8%	-17.4%	35.4%	63.2%	19.8%	40.5%	31.7%
ROIC (Ops) % ⓘ	14.7%	13.3%	14.0%	15.7%	17.0%	18.9%	22.8%	23.4%	21.8%	23.8%	24.1%
Invested capital (All-Capital)	11,616	13,611	11,744	12,207	14,350	12,731	13,719	16,150	16,282	18,375	19,668
ROIC (All-Capital) % ⓘ	20.9%	19.1%	21.8%	26.8%	27.7%	30.4%	38.6%	39.4%	37.1%	40.5%	40.9%
Capital return ratio %	N/A	N/M	175.1%	56.9%	54.1%	37.5%	202.7%	149.8%	39.4%	221.4%	56.7%
Acquisition intensity %	—	—	—	—	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Profit & Loss (USD millions)
Revenue	116,199	118,719	129,025	141,576	152,703	166,761	195,929	226,954	242,290	254,453	275,235
Revenue growth %	N/A	2.2%	8.7%	9.7%	7.9%	9.2%	17.5%	15.8%	6.8%	5.0%	8.2%
Gross profit	15,134	15,818	17,143	18,424	19,817	21,822	25,245	27,572	29,704	32,095	35,349
Gross margin %	13.0%	13.3%	13.3%	13.0%	13.0%	13.1%	12.9%	12.1%	12.3%	12.6%	12.8%
Gross profit growth %	N/A	4.5%	8.4%	7.5%	7.6%	10.1%	15.7%	9.2%	7.7%	8.0%	10.1%
Operating income	3,624	3,672	4,111	4,480	4,737	5,435	6,708	7,793	8,114	9,285	10,383
Operating margin %	3.1%	3.1%	3.2%	3.2%	3.1%	3.3%	3.4%	3.4%	3.3%	3.6%	3.8%
Operating income growth %	N/A	1.3%	12.0%	9.0%	5.7%	14.7%	23.4%	16.2%	4.1%	14.4%	11.8%
EBITDA	4,751	4,927	5,481	5,917	6,229	7,080	8,489	9,693	10,191	11,522	12,809
EBITDA growth %	N/A	3.7%	11.2%	8.0%	5.3%	13.7%	19.9%	14.2%	5.1%	13.1%	11.2%
EBITDA margin %	4.1%	4.2%	4.2%	4.2%	4.1%	4.2%	4.3%	4.3%	4.2%	4.5%	4.7%
Interest expense	124	133	134	159	150	160	171	158	160	169	154
Interest coverage (x)	38.3x	37.0x	40.9x	37.2x	41.5x	44.2x	49.6x	61.3x	63.7x	68.2x	83.2x
Net income	2,377	2,350	2,679	3,134	3,659	4,002	5,007	5,844	6,292	7,367	8,099
Net margin %	2.0%	2.0%	2.1%	2.2%	2.4%	2.4%	2.6%	2.6%	2.6%	2.9%	2.9%
Net income growth %	N/A	-1.1%	14.0%	17.0%	16.8%	9.4%	25.1%	16.7%	7.7%	17.1%	9.9%
EPS (diluted, $)	5.37	5.33	6.08	7.09	8.26	9.02	11.27	13.14	14.16	16.56	18.21
EPS growth %	N/A	-0.7%	14.1%	16.6%	16.5%	9.2%	24.9%	16.6%	7.8%	16.9%	10.0%
Balance Sheet (USD millions)
Total assets	33,017	33,163	36,347	40,830	45,400	55,556	59,268	64,166	68,994	69,831	77,099
Total debt	7,418	6,261	6,745	6,667	8,551	7,752	8,330	6,557	6,458	5,897	5,788
Shareholders' equity	10,617	12,079	10,778	12,799	15,243	18,284	17,564	20,642	25,058	23,622	29,164
Cash & equivalents	6,419	4,729	5,779	7,259	9,444	13,305	12,175	11,049	15,234	11,144	15,284
Shares outstanding (M)	438	438	437	438	440	441	442	443	443	443	443
Cash Flow (USD millions)
Operating cash flow	4,285	3,292	6,726	5,774	6,356	8,861	8,958	7,392	11,068	11,339	13,335
Capex	2,393	2,649	2,502	2,969	2,998	2,810	3,588	3,891	4,323	4,710	5,498
Free cash flow	1,892	643	4,224	2,805	3,358	6,051	5,370	3,501	6,745	6,629	7,837
FCF margin %	1.6%	0.5%	3.3%	2.0%	2.2%	3.6%	2.7%	1.5%	2.8%	2.6%	2.8%
FCF growth %	N/A	-66.0%	556.9%	-33.6%	19.7%	80.2%	-11.3%	-34.8%	92.7%	-1.7%	18.2%
Owner Earnings	N/A	-532	2,498	1,788	2,374	4,468	3,080	1,293	4,893	4,400	5,438
Owner Earnings margin %	N/A	-0.4%	1.9%	1.3%	1.6%	2.7%	1.6%	0.6%	2.0%	1.7%	2.0%
Owner Earnings growth %	N/A	N/A	—	-28.4%	32.8%	88.2%	-31.1%	-58.0%	278.4%	-10.1%	23.6%
Unlevered Owner Earnings	1,156	1,017	1,630	1,674	2,176	2,945	3,293	3,889	3,769	4,550	4,701
Investing cash flow	-2,480	-2,345	-2,366	-2,947	-2,865	-3,891	-3,535	-3,915	-4,972	-4,409	-5,311
Financing cash flow	-2,324	-2,419	-3,218	-1,281	-1,147	-1,147	-6,488	-4,283	-2,614	-10,764	-3,775
Dividends paid	2,865	746	3,904	689	1,038	1,479	5,748	1,498	1,251	9,041	2,183
Share buybacks	481	486	469	328	247	196	496	439	676	700	903
Buyback yield %	—	0.8%	0.7%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%	0.3%	0.2%	0.3%	0.2%	0.2%
D&A	1,127	1,255	1,370	1,437	1,492	1,645	1,781	1,900	2,077	2,237	2,426
CFO / Op. Income %	118.2%	89.7%	163.6%	128.9%	134.2%	163.0%	133.5%	94.9%	136.4%	122.1%	128.4%
Working Capital (USD millions)
Accounts receivable	1,224	1,252	1,432	1,669	1,535	1,550	1,803	2,241	2,285	2,721	3,203
Inventory	8,908	8,969	9,834	11,040	11,395	12,242	14,215	17,907	16,651	18,647	18,116
Accounts payable	9,011	7,612	9,608	11,237	11,679	14,172	16,278	17,848	17,483	19,421	19,783
Net PPE	15,401	17,043	18,161	19,681	20,890	21,807	23,492	24,646	26,684	29,032	31,909
Key Ratios
ROE %	22.4%	19.5%	24.9%	24.5%	24.0%	21.9%	28.5%	28.3%	25.1%	31.2%	27.8%
ROA %	7.2%	7.1%	7.4%	7.7%	8.1%	7.2%	8.4%	9.1%	9.1%	10.5%	10.5%
ROCE %	22.0%	20.9%	21.8%	21.4%	21.4%	17.7%	22.5%	24.2%	22.9%	27.0%	26.0%
Debt / Equity	0.70	0.52	0.63	0.52	0.56	0.42	0.47	0.32	0.26	0.25	0.20
Net Debt / EBITDA (x)	0.2x	0.3x	0.2x	-0.1x	-0.1x	-0.8x	-0.5x	-0.5x	-0.9x	-0.5x	-0.7x
Debtor days	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	4	3	4	4
Inventory days	32	32	32	33	31	31	30	33	29	31	28
Days payable (DPO)	33	27	31	33	32	36	35	33	30	32	30
Cash conv. cycle	3	9	5	4	3	-1	-1	4	2	3	2

Metric	FY24 Q4 Sep 24	FY25 Q1 Nov 24	FY25 Q2 Feb 25	FY25 Q3 May 25	FY25 Q4 Aug 25	FY26 Q1 Nov 25	FY26 Q2 Feb 26	FY26 Q3 May 26
Profit & Loss (USD millions)
Revenue	79,697	62,151	63,723	63,205	86,156	67,307	69,597	70,527
Gross profit	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Gross margin %	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Operating income	3,042	2,196	2,316	2,530	3,341	2,463	2,606	2,815
Net income	2,354	1,798	1,788	1,903	2,610	2,001	2,035	2,192
Net margin %	3.0%	2.9%	2.8%	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%	2.9%	3.1%
EPS (diluted, $)	5.31	4.04	4.02	4.28	5.89	4.50	4.58	4.93
Balance Sheet (USD millions, end of quarter)
Total assets	69,831	73,386	73,224	75,482	77,099	82,790	83,639	86,430
Total debt	5,897	5,842	5,853	5,895	5,788	5,736	5,760	5,670
Shareholders' equity	23,622	24,451	25,577	27,125	29,164	30,303	32,087	33,509
Cash & equivalents	11,144	10,907	12,356	13,836	15,284	16,217	17,383	18,946
Cash Flow (USD millions)
Operating cash flow	2,958	3,260	2,748	3,460	3,867	4,688	2,996	3,449
Capex	1,577	1,264	1,137	1,131	1,966	1,526	1,289	1,413
Free cash flow	1,381	1,996	1,611	2,329	1,901	3,162	1,707	2,036

Product

Foodand Sundries

Non Foods

Other

Fresh Food

Hardlines

Softlines

Membership

Segment	FY2016	FY2017	FY2018	FY2019	FY2020	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Revenue ($M)
Membership	2,646 2%	2,853 2%+8%	3,142 2%+10%	3,352 2%+7%	3,541 2%+6%	3,877 2%+9%	4,224 2%+9%	4,580 2%+8%	4,828 2%+5%	5,323 2%+10%
Product	116,073 98%	126,172 98%+9%	138,434 98%+10%	149,351 98%+8%	163,220 98%+9%	192,052 98%+18%	222,730 98%+16%	237,710 98%+7%	249,625 98%+5%	269,912 98%+8%
Foodand Sundries	—	52,362 41%	56,073 40%+7%	59,672 39%+6%	68,659 41%+15%	77,277 39%+13%	85,629 38%+11%	96,175 40%+12%	101,463 40%+5%	109,564 40%+8%
Fresh Food	—	17,849 14%	18,879 13%+6%	19,948 13%+6%	23,204 14%+16%	27,183 14%+17%	29,527 13%+9%	31,977 13%+8%	34,220 13%+7%	37,988 14%+11%
Hardlines	—	20,583 16%	22,620 16%+10%	24,570 16%+9%	27,729 17%+13%	—	—	—	—	—
Other	—	20,841 16%	25,475 18%+22%	28,571 19%+12%	26,550 16%-7%	31,626 16%+19%	46,474 20%+47%	48,693 20%+5%	49,969 20%+3%	51,170 19%+2%
Softlines	—	14,537 11%	15,387 11%+6%	16,590 11%+8%	17,078 10%+3%	—	—	—	—	—
Non Foods	—	—	—	41,160 27%	44,807 27%+9%	55,966 29%+25%	61,100 27%+9%	60,865 25%-0%	63,973 25%+5%	71,190 26%+11%
Total (check)	118,719	255,197	280,010	343,214	374,788	387,981	449,684	480,000	504,078	545,147

Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL · Full breakdown ↗

United States

Other International

Canada

Segment	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Revenue ($M)
Canada	33,056 14%	34,874 14%+5%	36,923 13%+6%
Other International	32,604 13%	35,436 14%+9%	38,266 14%+8%
United States	176,630 73%	184,143 72%+4%	200,046 73%+9%
Total (check)	242,290	254,453	275,235
Operating Margin %
Canada	+4.4%	+4.7%	+5.0%
Other International	+3.9%	+4.0%	+4.3%
United States	+3.1%	+3.4%	+3.4%

Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL · Full breakdown ↗

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