Portal
Tools & Notes
Standalone analysis tools and the writeups behind them — narrower and more opinionated than the ticker page, built one company or one question at a time.
Dashboard
Personal investing principles and decision-making rules.
Fundamental screener — filter by margins, ROIC, growth, leverage.
Thematic screener — scores companies against structural-trend exposure.
Tools
Project portfolio compounding over time from a CAGR assumption.
Multi-goal wealth planner — model several holdings toward a target.
Full TSR decomposition — capital vs. efficiency engine breakdown.
Deep Dives
Costco's five-year return is roughly three times more sensitive to the price a future buyer is willing to pay than to anything the business itself does. Growth and margin are the parts we can research; neither is the part that decides the outcome. The lens exists to make that asymmetry visible instead of arguable.
A drawdown despite Azure at 40% and a fourth straight beat isn't an earnings problem — it's a capex-return problem. OCF compounds while capex growth is the wildcard: if the buildout plateaus by FY27, FCF inflects convexly off a flat spending line; if the arms race continues, FCF stays trapped and the multiple keeps compressing. The Burger Lens tool models the two lines separately; the FY27 capex framing on the next earnings call is the checkpoint.
Ecosystem, services, and brand are a genuine moat — but the 'no Jobs-like product lately' instinct has a concrete current form: Apple just conceded it can't build a competitive frontier AI model in-house and is licensing Google's Gemini to power Siri instead. Meanwhile the services moat itself is under live, not hypothetical, regulatory attack in both the EU and the US. Status: monitor — thesis intact today, but several of its load-bearing pillars are mid-stress-test, not resolved.
The bear case on Adobe boils down to 'AI is going to eat Adobe' — a mood, not an argument. The Decay Lens splits that into four drivers you can check against the 10-K, and the valuation math shows how much of it the market has already priced in.